Navigating Wins in Trade, Crypto, and Family: Insights from The Dad Ledger Episode 6
Jul 28, 2025
In a lively late-night discussion on The Dad Ledger—a podcast blending macroeconomic insights, cryptocurrency strategies, and heartfelt dad advice—hosts Ryan Fields-Spack, Trent Cleveland, and Timo Prietto celebrated recent developments under the Trump administration while sharing practical wisdom for everyday fathers. Episode 6, recorded amid Timo's birthday festivities, delved into the groundbreaking US-EU trade deal, the evolving role of tariffs in the economy, blockchain's potential in global finance, the AI energy race, crypto profit-taking strategies, and the timeless importance of family and faith. Drawing from their personal experiences—Ryan as the facilitator, Trent as the crypto expert, and Timo as the macroeconomist—the conversation was both educational and entertaining.
Below, we recap the episode, weaving in additional context to deepen the hosts' points and provide actionable insights for readers.
The Landmark US-EU Trade Deal: A Shift in Global Commerce
The episode kicks off with excitement over the Trump administration's trade agreement with the European Union, announced on July 27, 2025. Ryan and Timo describe it as the "biggest deal in history," normalizing tariffs at 15% for most EU goods entering the US while dropping tariffs on US exports to the EU to nearly zero. This affects a massive trade bloc of 27 countries and 450 million people, potentially flooding Europe with American products like cars, which previously faced tariffs up to 100%.
The deal imposes a 15% baseline tariff on approximately 70% of EU imports (valued at over $900 billion annually), including autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while exempting aircraft, certain chemicals, and agricultural goods. In return, the EU commits to purchasing $750 billion in US energy (oil, gas, and nuclear) over three years—up from $80 billion annually—and investing $600 billion in the US by 2028. These commitments are non-binding but signal a strategic pivot, with the EU also pledging to buy undisclosed amounts of US military equipment. The deal averts a potential trade war, as Trump had threatened 30% tariffs, and resolves lingering issues like digital taxes on US tech firms.
Historically, US-EU tariff tensions date back to the 1960s "Chicken War," where disputes over poultry led to retaliatory tariffs on goods like trucks and brandy. More recently, BMW and other German automakers faced 30% tariffs on certain models in early 2025, which this deal halves. Timo's point about the rarity of American cars in Europe holds: High tariffs (often 10-100%) have limited US exports, but zero tariffs could boost them significantly, potentially adding billions in surpluses.
Trent adds that this realigns global commerce, countering years of strained relations where partners like China siphoned $400-500 billion in US intellectual property annually pre-COVID. The deal's emphasis on "rules on trade, aid, and innovation" aligns with broader efforts to protect US tech and enforce fair play.
|
Key Aspects of the 2025 US-EU Trade Deal |
US Benefits |
EU Concessions |
|---|---|---|
|
Tariffs on EU Goods to US |
15% baseline (down from threats of 30%) |
Applies to ~70% of exports ($900B+) |
|
Tariffs on US Goods to EU |
Nearly 0% across the board |
Opens market of 450M people |
|
Energy Purchases |
EU buys $750B in US energy (3 years) |
Up from $80B/year; boosts US fossil fuels |
|
Investments |
EU invests $600B in US by 2028 |
Non-binding; focuses on manufacturing/tech |
|
Other Commitments |
EU buys US military equipment; drops digital taxes |
Resolves Boeing-Airbus disputes |
This structure supports Ryan's reference to Zach Rector's analysis: Surpluses could fund tax relief, like eliminating income taxes for those under $120,000—a Trump proposal echoed in his 2024 campaign. However, replacing the $2.5 trillion from income taxes would require tariffs far beyond 15%, potentially hiking consumer prices by $5,000 per household annually.
Tariffs and Inflation: Debunking the Myths
Timo challenges the narrative that tariffs drive inflation, arguing costs are spread across producers, carriers, retailers, and consumers, often in non-inflationary ways. He cites how a 15% tariff doesn't mean a 15% price hike—it's diluted. Trent agrees, noting tariffs bring parties to the table without broad inflationary spikes.
The 2018 US tariffs added only 0.1-0.2% to core PCE inflation. While tariffs raise import costs (potentially passed to consumers), they don't inherently fuel economy-wide inflation unless the Fed prints money or demand surges unchecked. In the EU deal's case, higher inflation from passed-on costs is offset by US export gains and energy revenues.
On China: Talks delayed 90 days (now extended), but a deal could mirror the EU's, countering China's Belt and Road Initiative (One Belt One Road), which has secured partnerships with over 150 countries, bypassing the US dollar through crypto frameworks.
Blockchain's Role in Trade and Finance: Stablecoins, XRP, and Forex
Transitioning to crypto, Trent discusses how the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, signed July 18, 2025) enables faster cross-border payments, replacing slow SWIFT systems. The Act mandates full reserves for stablecoins, AML compliance, and HKMA-like licensing, fostering trust. FedWire's ISO 20022 adoption (live since 2023) signals blockchain integration, potentially using XRP for liquidity.
Timo highlights the $7.5 trillion daily forex turnover (annual ~$2.4 quadrillion), ripe for blockchain disruption. Competition among tokens like XRP, XLM, Cardano, and DAG is healthy, as regulated stablecoins vie for market share in this $8 trillion space. Trent notes XRP's trailblazing SEC win, paving the way for utility tokens.
Singapore and Japan are forex hubs, with blockchain reducing wire times from days to seconds. The 2019 repo market crash (involving $1 trillion in overnight loans) underscored fraud risks, now mitigated by regulated crypto.
The AI Energy Race: Deregulation and Nuclear Power
Timo and Trent pivot to AI's energy demands, contrasting China's unchecked coal builds (429 GW added in 2024) with US regulatory hurdles. China leads in AI models and power capacity, importing 80% of fuels but adding 15x more capacity than the US in 2024.
The Supreme Court's 2024 overturning of Chevron deference (in Loper Bright v. Raimondo) strips agencies like the EPA of rulemaking power, enabling energy deregulation. This, plus small modular reactors (SMRs)—bus-sized units powering data centers off-grid—could flip the script. Companies like Amazon and Oracle plan SMR deployments for 300MW sites, addressing water and land needs.
Trent spotlights Texas' Bitcoin mining for grid stability, while Timo eyes water as the US linchpin.
|
US vs. China: AI Energy Race (2025) |
US |
China |
|---|---|---|
|
New Power Capacity (2024) |
~28 GW |
429 GW |
|
AI Models Produced (2024) |
40 |
Closing gap |
|
Energy Strategy |
Deregulation + SMRs |
Coal + Renewables |
|
Grid Challenges |
Regulatory delays |
Import dependency |
Taking Profits in Crypto: Strategies for Dads
Trent offers a primer on exiting crypto positions: Assess assets for passive income (staking, delegating), set goals, and use decision matrices with price targets. For Flare, they delegate tokens for daily payouts; for Constellation (DAG), traffic miners track data for rewards.
Constellation's partnerships include contracts with the US Air Force for blockchain security (since 2019) and FDA wallets transacting on the network. DeFi empowers users but demands education—Timo's point on responsibility resonates.
Wisdom for Dads: Faith, Family, and Legacy
The episode closes poignantly: A meme of a stressed dad beside his content child reminds us priorities matter. Trent shares teaching his daughters crypto; Timo credits faith for lifting burdens; Ryan emphasizes presence.
In a world of trade wins and crypto surges, the hosts remind us: God and family first.
The Dad Ledger isn't just talk—it's actionable insights for building wealth and legacy. Catch future episodes for deeper dives, and remember: These are educational discussions, not advice.
Sources
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Deloitte, "Trump’s trade deal with EU: Economic impacts," 2025.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, "Tariffs and Inflation: Evidence from 2018," 2019.
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Bank for International Settlements, "Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets," 2025.
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Reuters, "US-EU Trade Agreement Details," July 28, 2025.
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U.S. Congress, "GENIUS Act Full Text," H.R. 2025, July 2025.
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Global Energy Monitor, "China’s Coal Capacity Expansion," 2024.
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U.S. Department of Energy, "Small Modular Reactors: Deployment Plans," 2025.
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Constellation Network, "Partnerships with U.S. Air Force and FDA," 2024.
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Supreme Court, "Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo," 2024.
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Bloomberg, "China’s Belt and Road Crypto Frameworks," 2025.